Insight

Arizona State upsets Iowa State to boost NCAA women’s tournament hopes

Arizona State women upset Iowa State 77–68 at the Big 12 tournament behind Gabby Elliott’s near triple-double, fueling NCAA women’s tournament bubble momentum.
Written by
Pathley Team
Arizona State women’s basketball flipped the script on one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, knocking off Iowa State 77–68 in the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. Behind Gabby Elliott’s near triple-double and a locked-in defensive game plan, the Sun Devils earned a signature win that could reshape their NCAA women’s tournament resume in Molly Miller’s first season. The performance also signaled how quickly Arizona State is adapting to life in the Big 12.

Arizona State upsets Iowa State to fuel Big 12 surge and NCAA women’s tournament case

On March 5, 2026 at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Arizona State University delivered exactly the kind of March statement that can change an entire season’s narrative. In a rematch against one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball, the Sun Devils stunned Iowa State 77–68 in the second round of the Phillips 66 Big 12 Women’s Basketball Tournament, grabbing a signature win that could prove pivotal on the NCAA women’s tournament bubble.

Coming in as the No. 10 seed at 24–9 overall and 9–9 in Big 12 play, Arizona State University faced a No. 7 seed Iowa State squad that had throttled them 90–64 just 15 days earlier in Ames. The Cyclones were widely recognized as one of the nation’s most explosive and efficient attacks, ranking near the top of Division I in scoring, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, and assists while averaging more than 82 points per game and shooting above 48 percent from the field and 37 percent from three.

This time, in their first season under head coach Molly Miller and still fighting to secure a place in the 2026 NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Tournament, the Sun Devils flipped the script. They dictated tempo, turned the game into a defensive grind, and led for roughly 98 percent of the night, never once trailing on the neutral floor.

How Arizona State flipped the rematch: defense first

From the opening tip, Arizona State made it clear this was not going to be a repeat of the February blowout in Ames. The Sun Devils came out with a sharp defensive edge, turning pressure into early mistakes for Iowa State and setting the tone for the entire game.

Arizona State forced five early Cyclone turnovers and raced out to an 11–2 lead. That surge grew to 17–2 late in the first quarter, forcing Iowa State into an early timeout just to steady itself. The Cyclones responded with a short burst to close the period at 17–9, but the dynamic that would define the game was already established: instead of coasting in transition and spacing the floor comfortably, Iowa State was forced to work for nearly every look against a locked-in Sun Devil defense.

The first meeting between the programs in February had been a high-octane Iowa State showcase. This second-round Big 12 contest was the total opposite. Every catch was contested, ball screens were fought over, and entry passes became riskier propositions. Arizona State turned the game into a half-court battle and made Iowa State play deep into the shot clock regularly.

Key first-half swings

Iowa State twice trimmed the deficit to five late in the second quarter, drawing within striking distance of erasing Arizona State’s hot start. Each time, the Sun Devils answered, highlighted by guard Gabby Elliott closing the half with the team’s final five points.

Those baskets helped Arizona State carry a 33–25 edge into the locker room, significant for a few reasons:

  • The Sun Devils had withstood Iowa State’s first real push without surrendering the lead.
  • The pace remained comfortably below the Cyclones’ preferred scoring tempo.
  • Arizona State had already proven it could generate enough offense against Iowa State’s defense to complement its stops.

For a program in its first year in the Big 12, those composed, end-of-half possessions were exactly what coaches want to see in a pressure setting like Kansas City.

Gabby Elliott’s near triple-double leads the way

The performance that will be remembered most from this upset belonged to senior guard Gabby Elliott. She not only led Arizona State in scoring with 22 points, she also grabbed a team-high 10 rebounds and handed out a career-best eight assists.

That stat line left her just two assists shy of only the third triple-double in the history of Arizona State University women’s basketball. Against one of the country’s most explosive opponents, Elliott played like a veteran star in March: poised, physical, and impactful on every possession.

Her influence grew after halftime. When Iowa State twice cut the margin to single digits early in the third quarter, Elliott took control of the game’s most important stretch. She poured in 13 points in the third alone, stringing together eight straight for Arizona State, including back-to-back three-pointers that shifted all the momentum back to the Sun Devil bench.

By the time that run ended, additional threes from forward McKinna Brackens and guard Marley Washenitz had pushed the lead to 47–35, and Arizona State closed the third quarter up 60–46. Every time Iowa State threatened, Elliott had the answer, whether as a scorer, facilitator, or rebounder.

Balanced Sun Devil scoring around Elliott

One reason this win resonated as more than a one-player show is that Arizona State got major production throughout its rotation.

Forward Heloisa Carrera provided the early spark, scoring 12 of her 17 points in the first quarter. She missed only one field-goal attempt and one free throw all night, giving the Sun Devils efficient interior scoring to stabilize the offense. Her ability to convert around the rim forced Iowa State to respect the paint, opening space for perimeter shooters in the later quarters.

Brackens added 16 points and six rebounds, repeatedly finding seams in the Cyclone defense and capitalizing in transition and secondary break opportunities. Those baskets were critical in punishing Iowa State whenever the Cyclones overextended trying to erase the deficit.

Guard Last-Tear Poa nearly turned in a double-double of her own with 12 points and a career-high nine rebounds. Her work on the glass helped Arizona State limit Iowa State’s normally potent offense to just one shot on many trips, which is a quiet but huge part of any upset formula.

On the perimeter, Elliott and Washenitz combined to knock down four of Arizona State’s six three-pointers, providing just enough perimeter punch to keep the defense honest and to build momentum during key stretches.

Numbers that tell the story: slowing an elite offense

What elevates this win from “good” to “potentially season-defining” is how thoroughly Arizona State disrupted Iowa State’s strengths. According to both school box scores and national stat services, the Cyclones’ normal offensive profile looked unrecognizable by the final horn.

Consider the contrast:

  • Iowa State entered averaging more than 82 points per game; Arizona State held the Cyclones to 68, roughly 14 points below their norm.
  • From nearly 48 percent shooting overall and close to 37 percent from three, Iowa State managed just 36.1 percent from the field and a frigid 19.4 percent from beyond the arc.
  • One of the nation’s elite three-point teams saw its long-range efficiency effectively cut in half.

On the other side, Arizona State executed cleanly on offense without needing to turn the game into a track meet:

  • 42.9 percent shooting from the field.
  • 46.2 percent from deep, hitting 6 of 13 three-pointers.
  • 82.1 percent at the free-throw line, converting 23 of 28 attempts.

The free-throw line in particular became a closing weapon. Each time Iowa State cut the lead to six in the final quarter, the Sun Devils slowed the game down, got into solid half-court sets, and earned trips to the stripe. Their poise in these situations allowed them to keep Iowa State from getting within a single possession late.

Rebounding and turnover margins added more context. Arizona State secured a 41–36 advantage on the glass and turned its defensive pressure into a 17–9 edge in points off turnovers, despite only committing two more giveaways than Iowa State. That combination, in a neutral-court environment against a ranked-caliber opponent, is exactly what coaching staffs and selection committees look at when trying to separate serious NCAA at-large contenders from the rest of the bubble.

Iowa State’s stars still produced, but runs were limited

Even in defeat, Iowa State showed why it had been such a formidable opponent throughout the Big 12 season. Center Audi Crooks, one of the leading scorers in Division I women’s basketball, finished with 21 points and extended her lengthy streak of double-figure scoring. Forward Addy Brown posted a double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds, and guards Kenzie Hare and Jada Williams also reached double digits.

The difference was that Arizona State never allowed those individual performances to snowball into the kind of prolonged run that typically buries opponents. The Cyclones made several pushes, slicing the margin to six on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter, but could never get closer.

Each time Iowa State seemed poised to flip the momentum, Arizona State responded with a calm, clock-chewing possession or a trip to the foul line. That type of execution is often what separates an early conference tournament exit from a deep March run.

Fans and analysts tracking the matchup through national coverage, including outlets like ESPN and Sports Illustrated, saw a clear story: Arizona State didn’t just catch fire for a quarter; it controlled the majority of the game against a top-tier attack.

The historical and Big 12 context for Arizona State

To fully understand why this 77–68 upset matters, it helps to zoom out on where Arizona State sits in Big 12 history and in its own program timeline.

Since joining the Big 12 for the 2024–25 season, the Sun Devils had lost all three conference meetings with Iowa State, including a high-scoring second-round loss in the 2025 Big 12 tournament and this season’s 26-point defeat in Ames. This win in Kansas City marked their first victory over the Cyclones as league rivals.

It also represented something Arizona State had not done in a while: string together multiple conference tournament wins. Combined with a 54–51 rivalry win over the University of Arizona in the first round a day earlier, the Iowa State upset gave Arizona State two Big 12 tournament victories in the same postseason, something the program had not achieved since the 2017–18 Pac-12 Tournament.

Layer on top of that the program’s transition into a deeper, more physical Big 12 conference, and the stakes become clear. Beating a respected, high-NET Iowa State team on a neutral court sends a message to the rest of the league that Arizona State is not just surviving realignment but beginning to thrive in it.

Molly Miller’s Year 1 turnaround

First-year head coach Molly Miller has been at the center of this rapid rise. Earlier in February, Miller became the winningest first-year head coach in Arizona State women’s basketball history by securing her 21st victory. That milestone also made this just the fifteenth season in program history with 21 or more wins, a benchmark that has often correlated with NCAA tournament appearances for the Sun Devils.

Under Miller, Arizona State has leaned into a defensive identity and a balanced offensive approach, traits that showed up clearly in Kansas City. Elliott’s near triple-double, Carrera’s efficiency, Brackens’ scoring touch, and Poa’s rebounding all fit that blueprint: multiple contributors, high effort on the glass, and steady guard play in the half court.

For recruits and high school coaches evaluating programs, this matters. A first-year coach stacking wins in a power conference, posting a top-25 caliber resume, and notching statement victories in March signals a program on the rise. Athletes looking at high-major women’s basketball options can expect Arizona State to be mentioned more often in future conversations, especially if this season’s late surge leads to an NCAA berth.

What this win means for the NCAA women’s tournament bubble

Before the Big 12 tournament tipped off, many national bracket projections had Arizona State hovering right around the cut line. According to internal notes from the program and national coverage referencing outlets like ESPN’s bracketology, the Sun Devils entered March as one of the first teams left out of the projected NCAA field.

Their resume already featured a strong collection of quality wins against top-100 NET opponents and a solid record in the top two quadrants. What seemed to be missing was a clear, late-season signature victory that selection committees often emphasize when splitting hairs among bubble teams.

The narrow first-round win over Arizona was helpful, especially from a rivalry and momentum standpoint. But easing past a fellow bubble or mid-tier conference team on a neutral floor does not necessarily move the needle the way a neutral-court upset of a high-powered Iowa State program does.

The 77–68 win checked almost every box committees tend to value:

  • Neutral court: Wins away from home, especially in conference tournaments, carry extra weight.
  • High-quality opponent: Iowa State’s metrics, offensive efficiency, and Big 12 standing strengthen the result.
  • Game control: Arizona State led for nearly the entire game and never trailed, demonstrating more than a fluky comeback.
  • Style contrast: Turning an elite offense into a below-average performance showcases defensive capability that travels.

Although Arizona State fell 67–54 to second-seeded West Virginia in the quarterfinals the following night, the two-day surge in Kansas City meaningfully reshaped the national conversation. As other bubble teams around the country suffered early exits in their own conference tournaments, the Sun Devils added a marquee result that stands out on any selection committee screen.

Why this matters to recruits, parents, and coaches

For high school players and club coaches tracking the women’s game, this upset offers several takeaways about what kind of program Arizona State is becoming.

  • Defensive identity: Shutting down an elite offense on a big stage shows a commitment to scouting, effort, and team defense. Recruits who value toughness and structure may see a fit here.
  • Player development: Elliott’s near triple-double, Carrera’s efficiency, and Poa’s expanded rebounding role reflect players thriving in Miller’s system.
  • Big 12 exposure: Competing and winning in the Big 12 means regular matchups against nationally relevant programs, more national TV opportunities, and stronger competition.
  • Program trajectory: A 20-plus win season, a first-year coach already in the record books, and meaningful March wins suggest sustainability, not a one-off spike.

If you are an athlete or family trying to understand where a school like Arizona State fits your academic, athletic, and campus goals, tools like the Pathley College Fit Snapshot can help you quickly see how a program’s profile lines up with your priorities. You can also explore hundreds of other women’s basketball options through the broader college basketball hub on Pathley to compare campuses, competition levels, and recruiting pathways.

Looking ahead: Arizona State’s Big 12 future

Regardless of how the final NCAA bracket shakes out, the win over Iowa State should stand as a turning point in Arizona State’s Big 12 story. It checked off three major boxes:

  • First Big 12 tournament win over a long-established league power.
  • First time with two conference-tournament victories in a postseason since 2017–18.
  • A clear demonstration that the program’s style of play can succeed against top offenses in a new conference.

In the short term, the focus is on whether that resume is strong enough to secure an at-large bid. In the longer term, the message is clear: Arizona State is moving quickly to establish itself as an emerging force in Big 12 women’s basketball under Miller.

Results like this also influence future scheduling, recruiting, and perception. Power-conference opponents will take notice of a Sun Devil team that can put together 40 minutes of disciplined defense and efficient offense in March. So will younger prospects, particularly guards and wings who see how central players like Elliott, Washenitz, and Poa are to Arizona State’s attack.

How athletes can use games like this in their own recruiting journey

For recruits, watching a game like Arizona State’s upset of Iowa State is more than just entertainment. It is a real-time case study in what college coaches look for in high-pressure moments.

  • How do players respond when an opponent cuts a big lead down to two possessions?
  • Which roles are valued: on-ball defense, rebounding guards, floor spacing, or versatile forwards?
  • How do bench players and role players impact momentum without leading the box score?

By paying attention to those details, you can start to identify systems and coaching styles that fit your game. If you see yourself thriving in a defensively tough, balanced offense similar to Arizona State, that can guide your outreach list and highlight video choices.

If you are not sure which programs match your style, the Pathley recruiting platform and tools like Compare Two Colleges make it easier to put schools side-by-side. You can quickly compare academics, athletic level, campus environment, and more, then build a targeted school list to share with your coaches and family.

Final takeaway: a statement that could define Arizona State’s season

In one game at the T-Mobile Center, Arizona State turned a lopsided February loss into a March statement. Behind Gabby Elliott’s near triple-double, a dominant rebounding effort, efficient shooting, and a suffocating defensive game plan, the Sun Devils neutralized one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the country and announced themselves as a serious NCAA bubble contender.

Whether this becomes the win that cements an at-large bid or simply the moment that marks the start of a new era in Tempe, it is the type of performance that resonates across the Big 12 and the national women’s basketball landscape. For recruits, parents, and coaches watching from afar, it is a reminder that in the right system and with the right development, players and programs can change their trajectories quickly.

If you are ready to explore where your own path might lead, you can start with Pathley’s College Directory to discover schools like Arizona State and beyond, then use AI-powered tools to narrow your options and build a smart, personalized recruiting plan.

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